The authors collected 3652 medical records of hospitalized patients with pneumonia and bronchitis from Dongzhimen hospital of Beijing university of Chinese medicine from January 1

1998 to December 31

2007

and data of 16 meteorological elements from Beijing Observatory（ including daily average temperature

daily extreme maximum temperature

daily extreme minimum temperature

daily average relative humidity

daily minimum relative humidity

daily average vapor pressure

daily precipitation

daily average wind speed

comfort level

change trend of temperature

change trend of vapor pressure

change trend of relative humidity

change trend of wind speed

change trend of precipitation

change trend of low cloud cover

change trend of comfort level）. The authors used the nonlinear regression method to analyze 46 groups of the earlier stage meteorological factors closely related to respiratory disease. We established 18 respiratory disease forecast equations about main time of six climates to forecast incidence trends of respiratory disease as the more level of accuracy to 75%

100% and the less level of accuracy to 60%

8

6%. So incidence trends of respiratory disease can be predicted according to the preliminary climate change.