Objective To establish the system of early warning for acute exacerbation by screening risk factors of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（ AECOPD） through expert questionnaires. Methods The expert questionnaire for acute exacerbation of AECOPD risk early warning was formulated based on the previous studies results. The questionnaires were conducted by 30 experts in the respiratory field. The concentration degree of expert opinions was evaluated with mean and full mark rate. The risk factors and system were determined by percentage weighting method. The deleting standard for risk factors was established. The early warning risk factors and system of AECOPD were formed referring to experts’ opinions. Results All of the 30 distributed questionnaires were recovered. The positive coefficient of the experts was 100. 0%. The early warning risk system included 6 aspects of patients’ basic condition

diseases condition

clinical symptoms

quality of life

biological information and traditional Chinese medicine（ TCM） syndrome. Experts’ opinion focused on clinical symptoms（ mean value 4. 8333）

the conditions of COPD（ 4. 7667）

smoking history（ 4. 9333）

the severity of COPD（ 4. 9000）

acute exacerbations in the past year（ 4. 8667

）

and wheezing（ 4. 9000） etc. The risk factors ranked according to the size of the weights were COPD’ assessment and test（ weight coefficient 0. 0178）

SGRQ（ 0. 0172）

wheezing（ 0. 0123）

chest tightness（ 0. 0118）

cough（ 0. 0116）

sputum（ 0. 0116）

etc. Conclusion The early warning risk system included 6 aspects of patients’ diseases conditions

clinical symptoms

quality of life

TCM syndrome etc. Some indexes could be used as AECOPD risk early warning factors

such as smoking history

the severity of COPD

the frequency of AECOPD for the past year

syndrome transformation etc.

which has positive effects in reducing the occurrence of AECOPD.